When the economy starts to wobble, economists pore over the big dashboards: GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation. But sometimes, the first red flags come from somewhere stranger.
In his Monday Morning Economist blog, Virginia Tech economist Jadrian Wooten points to the so-called cardboard box index, first introduced by former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan. Because more than 75 percent of non-durable goods in the U.S. ship in cardboard boxes, tracking their production can reveal something about future demand. According to Wooten, box makers have lately been scaling back, with nearly 9 percent of domestic capacity set to shut down.
“If they’re cutting back, it’s likely because orders are shrinking,” he said in a statement. Which means: fewer boxes, fewer goods moving, shakier economy.
But cardboard boxes are just one of many unconventional signals people have leaned on to spot downturns. Economists have long played with quirky, pop-cultural recession indicators that ...
