I've decided to jot down some simple* formalisms which I can refer new readers to on this website. So today....You know that if you have a novel mutation within a population, its probability of fixation if it is neutral is:1/(2N), where N = effective population, in a neutral scenario where the mutation confers neither advantage or disadvantage. So in a population of 100, a new mutant has a 1 out of 200 chance of fixation, going from 0.5% in the initial generation, to 100% in the generation of fixation. In a population of 1000, a new mutation has a .05% chance of fixation, and so forth.In a non-neutral case, fixation probability is 2s, where s equals the positive selective advantage conferred by the allele against the population mean fitness. So if the selection coefficient is 0.01, the probability of fixation is 2%.In regards to the time until fixation, for a neutral allele iit s 4N, where N is the effective population, and the product is generations.For a selectively beneficial allele, it is (2/s)(ln(2N)). The "left side" of this relation is more important since the parameter N is converted into its natural log.* In the first draft of this post I used the word "trivial," but I don't think these formalisms are necessarily clear and obvious intuitive statements, even if they are the most basic of algebras. So I've reedited it to "simple," as I think keeping in mind relations like 1/(2N) and 4N are important insights which are necessary for a gestalt comprehension of evolutionary dynamics.
My fixations
Discover the probability of fixation for neutral mutations and how effective population impacts evolutionary dynamics.
More on Discover
Stay Curious
SubscribeTo The Magazine
Save up to 40% off the cover price when you subscribe to Discover magazine.
Subscribe