The Sciences

Why the polls are wrong & John McCain will win

Gene ExpressionBy Razib KhanNov 3, 2008 2:49 PM

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If you've been following Pollster.com or FiveThirtyEight, you probably think that Barack Obama is a shoe-in. On the one hand, Kathryn Lopez's cherry-picking of polls in The Corner is not impressive.

But, I've found some data which strongly suggests that there is a major systematic bias and flaw in all the polls which is grossly overestimating the support for Obama.

My results and analysis are below.... BOOOHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SHOCK POST! Sorry, I just like scaring people, and there are many spooked & nervous liberals & Democrats right now. Too tempting & too easy.... Update: If you're stupid, you might find this persuasive, Turners.

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