Razib Khan's predictions for 2012

People often make "year end predictions." I haven't done that because I just haven't bothered. But, it's probably a nice way to see how full of crap you are. You can look back at how many mistakes you made, suggesting to you that you're really a lot more ignorant of the shape of reality than you fancy yourself. So I'm going to put some predictions down right now. The title is self-centered, but I want it to be Googleable. There are two classes of predictions. The first class are those which I think have more than 50 percent chance of coming to fruition. I don't want to pick "sure things," because what's the point of that? The second category is different, in that I think the chance of the outcome may be less than 50 percent, and the conventional wisdom is going to be opposite of the prediction, but I ...