Trying to Forecast Earthquakes Near the Salton Sea

A swarm of earthquakes near California's Salton Sea has led the U.S. Geological Survey to issue a forecast on the potential for a large quake.

Rocky Planet iconRocky Planet
By Erik Klemetti
Aug 12, 2020 2:00 PMAug 12, 2020 6:51 PM
Salton Sea
A view across the Salton Sea in California. Credit: Moonjazz / Flickr.

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No one can "predict" an earthquake. Let's get that out first. We don't understand enough of exactly what triggers large earthquakes to ever say with any certainty that one will strike on a specific day in a specific location. However, by looking at patterns of earthquakes in the past and swarms of earthquakes in the present, seismologists can begin to forecast the likelihood of a big earthquake. This is like weather forecasting — we know there is a chance of something happening, but by no means is it a prediction of something happening at a specific time and date.

Southern California has been experiencing an earthquake swarm near the Salton Sea for the past few days. None of the earthquakes have been big. They have mostly been in the magnitude 2-3 range with a few as large as M4.6. The smaller ones you might notice, the larger would definitely be felt, but none is widely destructive. So, where could all these earthquakes lead?

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