How to Understand Probability

This challenging area of mathematics can be tricky to grasp

By Avery Hurt
Oct 10, 2021 5:00 AMOct 11, 2021 6:25 PM
Three doors
(Credit: SimoneN/Shutterstock)

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Back in the 1970s, the popular television game show “Let’s Make a Deal,” hosted by Monty Hall, became the unexpected face of a classic probability problem — now often called the Monty Hall problem.

In the most celebrated version of the show, contestants were given a choice of three doors. Behind one door was a fancy sports car. Behind each of the other two doors was something not as grand: a goat. Once a contestant made their choice, Hall would open one of the unchosen doors that he knew would reveal a goat. That left two doors still unopened, one with a goat and one with a car. Then came the ultimate question. “Do you still want what’s behind door number one? Or would you like to switch to the other unopened door?”

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