The Climate Change Narrative

In 2008, it was shaped by Copenhagen and the proposed U.S. congressional cap & trade legislation. That makes sense, since major political events (especially protracted ones) tend to propel narratives. (Ordinarily, climate science drives the global warming narrative, but 2008 was akin to a presidential election year for climate change.) Sure there were new public opinion polls and plenty of fresh, alarming scientific findings that fueled media coverage, but the master narrative flowed from the political dealmaking done in the U.S and on the international stage. The storyline in 2009 is shaping up to be something much different. Marc Morano can continue to insist that global warming is a hoax because of the hacked emails or the latest IPCC screwup, but no amount of screaming headlines on Climate Depot is going to alter the firm scientific consensus that anthropogenic global warming is real, or the minds of a majority of people who think it's real (if not an urgent problem). So there's still going to be a debate on how to curb greenhouse gases this year. The question is, will cap & trade remain a central theme? I'm guessing no if the U.S. climate bill gets put on the shelf with healthcare legislation. What does that mean for the next round of international talks in Mexico City? Remember, it's a given that a world treaty hinges on the U.S. passing a climate bill. So what happens if cap & trade is eliminated from congressional legislation, which seems increasingly likely? What if the whole bill is scuttled? What's the climate narrative then, leading up to Mexico City? How do you negotiate an international cap & trade mechanism with carbon reduction targets if the world's second largest emitter isn't on board? I thought that Mike Hulme laid out an intriguing scenario in this recent Nature piece. Hulme speaks to the growing sense that a clearer path emerged from the chaos of Copenhagen, one that