As global temperatures climb higher year after year, the Earth heads toward a new era marked by a prospective breach of the Paris Agreement. Signed in 2016, the international climate treaty set a limit to keep global surface temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius (C) (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, but two new studies warn that the world may be on its way to failing this critical test.
Recent temperature data reflect a turn for the worse, as 2024 became the first year in which the average global temperature surpassed 1.5 degrees C. The two new studies, both published in Nature Climate Change, were motivated by this tipping point to determine whether the 2024 data foreshadows an impending violation of the Paris Agreement limit; the simulations referenced in both studies show that it is a real possibility.
It’s impossible to say that the Paris Agreement limit has been broken yet ...
