I'm not a meteorologist. I haven't done an analysis of vertical wind shear, sea surface temperatures, or anything else. Moreover, even the best forecasters have a tough time determining when a severe hurricane will grow out of a more ordinary disturbance. But all of that said, doesn't it look like this disturbance over the Indian Ocean is about to develop? You can already kinda see the spiraling rain bands. (Disclosure: This is amateur hour. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.)
