The last of the pre-season hurricane forecasts--from Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, the latter of whom happens to be a chief character in my new book--is now out (PDF). It is unchanged from the previous Klotzbach/Gray forecast: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Why this prediction? These are the key factors: Warm sea surface temperatures, ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions expected in the Pacific, and relatively weak trade winds over the Atlantic (meaning less surface evaporation, and thus less heat getting out of the ocean). The always reliable Jeff Masters has a summary of the Gray forecast that gets into many more of the details and compares it with all the other forecasts out there--from NOAA, from Tropical Storm Risk. As Masters puts it:
The CSU forecast matches up well with the TSR, Inc. forecast (16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes) ...
