Well, we appear to have a second TC for this season--though it has not yet been officially named Beryl. Right now it's just Tropical Depression TWO. The storm is hanging out off the coast of the Carolinas, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Jeff Masters is tracking this proto-Beryl, which he expects to remain at sea. Meanwhile, the first National Hurricane Center forecast discussion contains this important section:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DUE IN PART TO POORLY INITIALIZED SST CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS OVER 80F SSTS...WHEREAS SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSTS ARE 82-83F UNDER THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE POOR AT BEST AND... THEREFORE... A NEGATIVE ...
