Not good news this morning, as the National Hurricane Center felt the need to shift the forecast track for Hurricane Earl to the west--e.g., closer to the U.S. east coast. Earl is now a 95 knot Category 2 hurricane, and given how much it has strengthened in the past 24 hours, seems on course towards Category 3 or 4 today. Here's what the forecasters say:
GIVEN THE LARGE SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS WEEK.
In other words--we don't want to unreasonably scare you... ...but it is certainly time to sit up and pay attention to this storm. Earl's new track is below: