Planet Earth

American probability of death over time

Gene ExpressionBy Razib KhanMay 13, 2011 5:52 PM

It's Friday the 13th. So why not a morbid post? I stumbled onto to some "life tables" for 2007. Actually what the link gives you is the probability of death and life expectancy at a given age for males and females. This is obviously important for purposes of private and public insurance. The tables are naturally broken down by sex because males and females differ in their likelihood of death. Women are well known to have higher life expectancies in all but the most primitive of nations today. I wanted to do a little visualization. I limited the years across the interval 0 to 100. Since I find life expectancy a boring statistic (well known) I want to focus on probability of death in a given year. I generated four tables. - First, a table which shows probability of death in a given year log transformed. I had to transform because the difference between a 1 year old and a 100 year old spans four orders of magnitude. - Second, a table which illustrates the absolute change in the probability of death year to year. This is basically measuring the absolute change between year X and year X - 1. Concretely an example might be (probability of death at age 10) - (probability of death at age 9) - Third, a table which takes the result from the above table and standardizes it by the value for the previous year, so it shows the year to year change proportionally. So [(probability of death at age 10) - (probability of death at age 9)]/(probability of death at age 9). - Finally, a ratio of male to female probability of death over the years. This is usually > 1 obviously. Total surprise to me that it goes < 1 around age ~10. Go team male! Remember that age is the x-axis on all the charts below. The raw data is appended below the charts. Have a good weekend!

AgeMale death probabilityMale life expectancyFemale death probabilityFemale life expectancyMale death probability changeFemale death probability changeMale death probability proportional changeFemale death probability proportional changeMale/Female

00.00737975.3800000.00609680.430000

10.00049474.9400000.00043479.9200000.0068850.0056620.9330530.9288061.1

20.00031773.9800000.00025678.9500000.0001770.0001780.3583000.4101381.2

30.00024173.0000000.00019277.9700000.0000760.0000640.2397480.2500001.3

40.00020072.0200000.00014876.9900000.0000410.0000440.1701240.2291671.4

50.00017971.0300000.00013676.0000000.0000210.0000120.1050000.0810811.3

60.00016670.0400000.00012875.0100000.0000130.0000080.0726260.0588241.3

70.00015269.0500000.00012274.0200000.0000140.0000060.0843370.0468751.2

80.00013368.0600000.00011573.0300000.0000190.0000070.1250000.0573771.2

90.00010867.0700000.00010672.0400000.0000250.0000090.1879700.0782611.0

100.00008966.0800000.00010071.0400000.0000190.0000060.1759260.0566040.9

110.00009465.0900000.00010270.050000-0.000005-0.000002-0.056180-0.0200000.9

120.00014564.0900000.00012069.060000-0.000051-0.000018-0.542553-0.1764711.2

130.00025263.1000000.00015768.070000-0.000107-0.000037-0.737931-0.3083331.6

140.00040162.1200000.00020967.080000-0.000149-0.000052-0.591270-0.3312101.9

150.00056361.1400000.00026766.090000-0.000162-0.000058-0.403990-0.2775122.1

160.00071960.1800000.00032365.110000-0.000156-0.000056-0.277087-0.2097382.2

170.00087359.2200000.00036964.130000-0.000154-0.000046-0.214186-0.1424152.4

180.00101758.2700000.00040163.150000-0.000144-0.000032-0.164948-0.0867212.5

190.00114857.3300000.00042262.180000-0.000131-0.000021-0.128810-0.0523692.7

200.00128556.4000000.00044161.200000-0.000137-0.000019-0.119338-0.0450242.9

210.00141255.4700000.00046360.230000-0.000127-0.000022-0.098833-0.0498873.0

220.00149354.5400000.00048359.260000-0.000081-0.000020-0.057365-0.0431973.1

230.00151353.6300000.00049958.290000-0.000020-0.000016-0.013396-0.0331263.0

240.00148752.7100000.00051357.3200000.000026-0.0000140.017184-0.0280562.9

250.00144651.7800000.00052856.3500000.000041-0.0000150.027572-0.0292402.7

260.00141250.8600000.00054455.3800000.000034-0.0000160.023513-0.0303032.6

270.00138949.9300000.00056354.4000000.000023-0.0000190.016289-0.0349262.5

280.00138849.0000000.00058553.4400000.000001-0.0000220.000720-0.0390762.4

290.00140548.0700000.00061252.470000-0.000017-0.000027-0.012248-0.0461542.3

300.00142847.1300000.00064251.500000-0.000023-0.000030-0.016370-0.0490202.2

310.00145346.2000000.00067850.530000-0.000025-0.000036-0.017507-0.0560752.1

320.00148745.2700000.00072149.560000-0.000034-0.000043-0.023400-0.0634222.1

330.00152944.3300000.00077148.600000-0.000042-0.000050-0.028245-0.0693482.0

340.00158443.4000000.00083047.640000-0.000055-0.000059-0.035971-0.0765241.9

350.00165142.4700000.00089646.680000-0.000067-0.000066-0.042298-0.0795181.8

360.00173741.5400000.00097145.720000-0.000086-0.000075-0.052090-0.0837051.8

370.00184540.6100000.00105644.760000-0.000108-0.000085-0.062176-0.0875391.7

380.00197939.6800000.00115343.810000-0.000134-0.000097-0.072629-0.0918561.7

390.00214038.7600000.00126042.860000-0.000161-0.000107-0.081354-0.0928011.7

400.00232337.8400000.00137741.910000-0.000183-0.000117-0.085514-0.0928571.7

410.00252636.9300000.00150640.970000-0.000203-0.000129-0.087387-0.0936821.7

420.00275036.0200000.00165040.030000-0.000224-0.000144-0.088678-0.0956181.7

430.00299335.1200000.00181039.100000-0.000243-0.000160-0.088364-0.0969701.7

440.00325734.2200000.00198538.170000-0.000264-0.000175-0.088206-0.0966851.6

450.00354333.3300000.00217437.240000-0.000286-0.000189-0.087811-0.0952141.6

460.00385632.4500000.00237536.320000-0.000313-0.000201-0.088343-0.0924561.6

470.00420831.5700000.00258235.410000-0.000352-0.000207-0.091286-0.0871581.6

480.00460330.7100000.00279434.500000-0.000395-0.000212-0.093869-0.0821071.6

490.00503729.8400000.00301233.590000-0.000434-0.000218-0.094286-0.0780241.7

500.00551228.9900000.00325532.690000-0.000475-0.000243-0.094302-0.0806771.7

510.00600828.1500000.00351731.800000-0.000496-0.000262-0.089985-0.0804921.7

520.00650027.3200000.00378230.910000-0.000492-0.000265-0.081891-0.0753481.7

530.00697726.4900000.00404530.020000-0.000477-0.000263-0.073385-0.0695401.7

540.00745625.6800000.00431829.140000-0.000479-0.000273-0.068654-0.0674911.7

550.00797524.8700000.00461928.270000-0.000519-0.000301-0.069608-0.0697081.7

560.00855124.0600000.00496527.400000-0.000576-0.000346-0.072226-0.0749081.7

570.00917423.2600000.00536626.530000-0.000623-0.000401-0.072857-0.0807651.7

580.00984822.4800000.00583025.670000-0.000674-0.000464-0.073468-0.0864701.7

590.01058421.6900000.00635824.820000-0.000736-0.000528-0.074736-0.0905661.7

600.01140720.9200000.00696123.970000-0.000823-0.000603-0.077759-0.0948411.6

610.01231520.1600000.00762423.140000-0.000908-0.000663-0.079600-0.0952451.6

620.01328919.4000000.00832222.310000-0.000974-0.000698-0.079091-0.0915531.6

630.01432618.6600000.00904621.490000-0.001037-0.000724-0.078034-0.0869981.6

640.01545317.9200000.00982220.690000-0.001127-0.000776-0.078668-0.0857841.6

650.01672317.1900000.01069819.890000-0.001270-0.000876-0.082185-0.0891881.6

660.01815416.4800000.01170219.100000-0.001431-0.001004-0.085571-0.0938491.6

670.01973215.7700000.01283218.320000-0.001578-0.001130-0.086923-0.0965651.5

680.02146815.0800000.01410317.550000-0.001736-0.001271-0.087979-0.0990491.5

690.02338714.4000000.01552616.790000-0.001919-0.001423-0.089389-0.1009011.5

700.02557913.7300000.01716316.050000-0.002192-0.001637-0.093727-0.1054361.5

710.02803213.0800000.01898715.320000-0.002453-0.001824-0.095899-0.1062751.5

720.03066512.4400000.02092214.610000-0.002633-0.001935-0.093928-0.1019121.5

730.03346711.8200000.02295113.910000-0.002802-0.002029-0.091375-0.0969791.5

740.03651911.2100000.02514713.220000-0.003052-0.002196-0.091194-0.0956821.5

750.04001010.6200000.02770912.550000-0.003491-0.002562-0.095594-0.1018811.4

760.04398710.0400000.03065911.900000-0.003977-0.002950-0.099400-0.1064641.4

770.0483599.4800000.03386111.260000-0.004372-0.003202-0.099393-0.1044391.4

780.0531408.9400000.03731110.630000-0.004781-0.003450-0.098865-0.1018871.4

790.0584348.4100000.04113210.030000-0.005294-0.003821-0.099624-0.1024091.4

800.0644577.9000000.0455619.430000-0.006023-0.004429-0.103074-0.1076781.4

810.0712597.4100000.0506988.860000-0.006802-0.005137-0.105528-0.1127501.4

820.0787416.9400000.0564868.310000-0.007482-0.005788-0.104997-0.1141661.4

830.0869236.4900000.0629717.770000-0.008182-0.006485-0.103910-0.1148071.4

840.0959356.0600000.0702597.260000-0.009012-0.007288-0.103678-0.1157361.4

850.1059375.6500000.0784716.770000-0.010002-0.008212-0.104258-0.1168821.4

860.1170635.2600000.0877136.310000-0.011126-0.009242-0.105025-0.1177761.3

870.1294074.8900000.0980645.870000-0.012344-0.010351-0.105447-0.1180101.3

880.1430154.5500000.1095785.450000-0.013608-0.011514-0.105157-0.1174131.3

890.1578894.2200000.1222835.060000-0.014874-0.012705-0.104003-0.1159451.3

900.1740133.9200000.1361904.690000-0.016124-0.013907-0.102122-0.1137281.3

910.1913543.6400000.1513004.360000-0.017341-0.015110-0.099653-0.1109481.3

920.2098673.3800000.1676024.040000-0.018513-0.016302-0.096747-0.1077461.3

930.2295023.1500000.1850783.760000-0.019635-0.017476-0.093559-0.1042711.2

940.2501982.9300000.2037003.500000-0.020696-0.018622-0.090178-0.1006171.2

950.2707502.7500000.2225413.260000-0.020552-0.018841-0.082143-0.0924941.2

960.2908142.5800000.2413173.050000-0.020064-0.018776-0.074105-0.0843711.2

970.3100292.4400000.2597162.870000-0.019215-0.018399-0.066073-0.0762441.2

980.3280212.3000000.2774092.700000-0.017992-0.017693-0.058033-0.0681241.2

990.3444222.1900000.2940542.540000-0.016401-0.016645-0.050000-0.0600021.2

1000.3616442.0700000.3116972.390000-0.017222-0.017643-0.050003-0.0599991.2

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