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Humanity's Early Ancestors Narrowly Escaped Extinction in a Frozen World

Long ago, when climate change inflicted ice and drought on the landscape, early human ranks fell to roughly the population of a small town.

ByMatt Hrodey
Credit: iurii/Shutterstock

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Humanity’s ancestors nearly went extinct between 930,000 years and 813,000 years ago, when their numbers dwindled to about 1,280 breeding individuals, according to a new paper.

The study blames climatic conditions during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, when encroaching glaciers and drought killed off many of the early humans’ food sources.

Generations that lived through the stark 117,000-year period helped to rebuild hominid populations in Europe and Asia to a relatively stable level of about 27,160 breeders.

For the study, researchers from China, Italy and the U.S. built a unique “fast infinitesimal time coalescent process (FitCoal)” model that used 3,154 modern-day genomes to peer deep into the genetic past. Prior to the population collapse, the model estimated a population of about 98,130 early humans that survived until about 930,000 years ago. By about that time, the Mid-Pleistocene Transition had taken effect and lowered global temperatures and thickened the glaciers.

The drastic bottleneck ...

  • Matt Hrodey

    Matt is a staff writer for DiscoverMagazine.com, where he follows new advances in the study of human consciousness and important questions in space science - including whether our universe exists inside a black hole. Matt's prior work has appeared in PCGamesN, EscapistMagazine.com, and Milwaukee Magazine, where he was an editor six years.

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