The forecast team at Colorado State now says we're going to have a below average hurricane year in the Atlantic. They admit their last foreast for August was a "bust", because they had been unable to anticipate the high levels of African dust in the air that have been choking off storms, and the dryness in middle levels of the atmosphere. Gray and Klotzbach add that it looks more and more like El Nino conditions may be shaping up in the Pacific--and sure enough, we are seeing a lot of tropical storm activity over on the other side of Mexico. El Ninos tend to enhance Pacific hurricane activity but to generate wind shear that suppresses storms in the Atlantic. We'll have to see what the other forecasters have to say as well--but remember, El Nino type conditions don't necessarily mean the U.S. is entirely off the hook. For example, now Jeff Masters is talking about Hurricane John potentially bringing tropical storm conditions up to San Diego, something that is very rare but less unlikely in an El Nino year, with warmer sea temperatures extending further northward in the Pacific. Believe it or not, San Diego has actually been hit before by hurricane force winds, although it was way back in 1858, before the publication of The Origin of Species. Nevertheless, as you can see in the image below of model runs for John's track provided by Kerry Emanuel's helpful website, a more northward trajectory is definitely within the range of possibilities (although John would presumably weaken steadily along this course):
It will be really weird if I arrive in San Diego on September 6, ready to start the book tour, just after a tropical storm has passed....
