Gray & Klotzbach Downscale the Forecast Again

The forecast team at Colorado State now says we're going to have a below average hurricane year in the Atlantic. They admit their last foreast for August was a "bust", because they had been unable to anticipate the high levels of African dust in the air that have been choking off storms, and the dryness in middle levels of the atmosphere. Gray and Klotzbach add that it looks more and more like El Nino conditions may be shaping up in the Pacific--and sure enough, we are seeing a lot of tropical storm activity over on the other side of Mexico. El Ninos tend to enhance Pacific hurricane activity but to generate wind shear that suppresses storms in the Atlantic. We'll have to see what the other forecasters have to say as well--but remember, El Nino type conditions don't necessarily mean the U.S. is entirely off the hook. For example, now ...