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Fit Hits Shan at the National Hurricane Center

As hurricane season approaches, turmoil at the National Hurricane Center director’s helm raises concerns for future forecasts.

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I've barely even met newly installed National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza. I shook his hand at the National Hurricane Conference last April in New Orleans, and at the American Meteorological Society meeting last January in San Antonio, I asked him a question about hurricanes and global warming at a press conference, which he answered respectably (if cautiously). All in all, he seemed like a nice enough and more than competent guy. Moreover, when Proenza started speaking out about how NOAA was underfunding his center and not planning adequately to save the ailing QuikSCAT satellite, I was instinctively impressed by this guy who seemed so willing to, in the famous phrase, "speak truth to power." Now, however, a meltdown has occurred at the hurricane center, and we learn for the first time that many of the top forecasters--including one I interviewed for the book, Richard Pasch, and another that I also met in San Antonio, James Franklin--have gone on record to The Miami Herald questioning Proenza's leadership. That gives me more than a little pause. Meanwhile, at least one hurricane blogger who is more in the know than I about the developing story in Miami--Margie Kieper--is now predicting Proenza's ouster. In a few hours, meanwhile, Jeff Masters is promising a lot more inside information about this developing, er, storm. The most shocking thing is that all this is happening as the busy part of hurricane season approaches. Indeed, there's a tropical wave coming across the Atlantic right now with at least some development potential. I don't want to suggest the forecasters can't do their jobs without a leader, but still, it would be disconcerting if we enter August with either a) no hurricane center director or b) serious strife among staff at our chief hurricane forecasting center....

UPDATE: Jeff Masters challenges Proenza's laments over the QuikSCAT satellite...

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