Latest Forecast: Odds of an El Niño Drop

This map shows how sea surface temperatures in the Pacific vary from average. During an El Niño event, anomalously warm water develops in the eastern tropical Pacific off the coast of South America. (Source: NOAA) The odds of an El Niño developing this winter have faded somewhat, further dimming hopes for a break in California's historic drought. Back in June, forecasters pegged the odds of an El Niño emerging by fall and winter at 80 percent. Today, a bulletin from the National Climatic Data Center reports that the long predicted El Niño has still not emerged, and that the odds of one emerging have dropped from a two in three chance last month to 58 percent now. From the Climate Prediction Center: