Embracing (Climate) Uncertainty

In the public sphere, where the various running debates on climate science and climate policy are most fiercely fought, the uncertainty factor is often downplayed or glossed over. Subsequently, it gets little attention in the media. And that's a shame, because in the decision-making sphere, the uncertainty factor is very much on the minds of everyone from water managers in Denver to national security planners in the Pentagon. And they have to make some hard decisions, regardless of what happens with the energy/climate bill in Congress or treaty negotiations on the international stage. That's because for both water managers and security planners (even though they work in very different arenas), there are huge unknowns with respect to the projected localized impacts of global warming. So I think it's notable that Gavin Schmidt highlights this issue over at Real Climate, with a new post that draws attention to this paper, called, "Options for Improving Climate Modeling to Assist Water Utility Planning for Climate Change." Despite the wonky title, the paper is well worth reading for anyone interested in how the uncertainty factor is being grappled with at the ground level in water management circles. It's also notable that Gavin chose to spotlight this clever play on a famous phrase, which is taken from that paper: