Patience Wearing Thin as Unrest Continues at Agung but No Eruption

A view of the crater at Agung on September 27, 2017. The increased steam and gas emissions can be seen on the right side of the crater. The dark scar on the slopes of the volcano come from a forest fire earlier in the month. Image by Planet Labs. We have likely entered the most dangerous period in the waiting game at Agung in Indonesia. It has been over 2 weeks since the volcano began to show signs of unrest and it has done very little other than shake and produce a small steam-and-gas plume. Upwards of 140,000 people have evacuated from the regions near the volcano and now all of them are watching and waiting for the volcano to do ... something. The longer the wait, the more likely people may reject the assessment of volcanologists that an eruption is going to happen and try to move back to the homes near the volcano, potentially lining us up for a larger disaster. So, what can be done? The signs of this impatience are already there: officials on Bali want tourist warnings rescinded as thousands of trips to the region have been cancelled (possibly leading to as much as a 30% decrease in tourism). Many people who live far out from the volcano who evacuated anyway have been asked to return to alleviate pressure on aid/housing for evacuees, yet they stay away out of fear. Even the media is beginning to ask questions about why the volcano hasn't erupted and what happens if it doesn't. For a volcanologist, there is no easy answer. Much like meteorologists who get grief if you only get 2" of snow instead of 20", volcanologists must contend with residents who seem upset that they used an abundance of caution rather than put people in greater risk. However, once that trust is eroded, it is hard to rebuild. During the 1980's, the USGS was very concerned that Mammoth Mountain in California was heading towards an eruption and took to the media to relay that potential threat. This severely impacted the people living in the tourist-heavy area, especially in terms of real estate prices and visits to the ski areas on the volcano. However, nothing came of the earthquake swarm at Mammoth, so the local residents claimed that the USGS oversold the threat. As they say, hindsight is 20/20. During a crisis, you are presented with information and need to make the best interpretation possible that could prevent the most loss of life. You might be lulled into a sense of complacency if you sit through the period of unrest and see nothing change for days to weeks. Yet, if you were dropped into that situation in Day 10 of the crisis without any background, you would know the situation is highly hazardous.