What's the News: America's intelligence agencies are in the business of predicting the future, using limited amounts of information to divine world events. But even expert analysts and sophisticated algorithms can make mistakes. That's why IARPA---which takes on high-risk, high-reward research projects (read: awesome longshots) in US intelligence---is turning to crowdsourcing, reports Adam Rawnsley at Wired.com's Danger Room. Applied Research Associates will launch an IARPA-backed website this Friday to test whether those of us without security clearances can point the clandestine services in the right direction. How the Heck:
The Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program, or Forecasting ACE, as the website is called, will work on the same principle as many other crowdsourcing projects: ask lots of people what they think.
Forecasting ACE will essentially work like an online survey, Rawnsley reports. People will be asked whether they think something will happen, and how likely they think it is to ...
