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Chasing the Dream of Earthquake Prediction

Earthquake prediction at any scale is not possible today. However, new research suggests that hints of prediction might be hiding in subtle movements on faults.

Collapsed buildings after an earthquake in Ecuador on April 16, 2016. Credit: EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid / Wikipedia.

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Few corners of the internet are more frustrating to Earth Scientists than those folks who think they can "predict" earthquakes. You'll see YouTube videos, TikToks, Facebook posts and more where self-proclaimed experts warn people that a large earthquake will happen somewhere on the planet during a very specific window of time. It is all garbage, every last moment of it. Earthquake prediction is not possible, especially with the accuracy that these snake oil sellers claim. Yet, a hint of a scientifically-based future for prediction might actually be out there.

If you have watched or read about these predictions, you'll see some common themes. Many of them have one foot in astrology, claiming that earthquakes can be predicted based on planetary and lunar alignments. Others like to claim that things like "earthquake weather" exist. There are even some who point at harmless experiences like HAARP as a nefarious manmade trigger for ...

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