A "fast and dirty" analysis of the spread of swine flu thus far has led researchers to believe that the virus will eventually turn into a true pandemic infecting about a third of the world's population--but they hasten to add that the analysis also suggests that the flu doesn't have a devastating death rate. Lead researcher Neil Ferguson, a member of the World Health Organization's emergency committee for the outbreak, says:
"This virus really does have full pandemic potential. It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world's population. To put that into context, normal seasonal flu every year probably affects around 10% of the world's population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual" [BBC News].
The analysis, published in ...
