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A La Niña Three-Peat Portends Continuing Climatic Disruption

A third consecutive La Niña winter will tip the odds in favor of continued drought across already water starved swaths of the U.S.

California's Mosquito Fire burns to the west of Lake Tahoe (on the right), as seen by the Sentinel 2 satellite on Sept. 16, 2022. With a third winter of La Niña in the forecast, the odds are tipped in favor of continued drought — and more wildfires like this — in the southern portion of the state.Credit: Copernicus Sentinel data processed by Pierre Markuse.

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It looks like La Niña is staging an exceedingly rare three-peat.

The weather-influencing climate pattern is very likely to continue for a third consecutive winter, according to both NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization.

If it does, it would be only the third La Niña three-peat on record.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean from mid-June through early September 2022 compared to the long-term average. East of the International Dateline (180˚), waters remained cooler than average, a sign of La Niña. (Credit: Graphic by Climate.gov, based on data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab.)

Graphic by Climate.gov, based on data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab.

La Niña is characterized by large-scale cooling of the sea surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in atmospheric circulation. These shifts typically herald significant weather impacts around the globe.

For large parts of the northern tier of the ...

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