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Statisticians Reveal the Number of Serial Killers That Were Never Caught During The 20th Century

Some prolific serial killers almost certainly die before they can be caught. Now a new statistical analysis reveals just how many evade justice in this way.

The Physics arXiv Blog iconThe Physics arXiv Blog
By The Physics arXiv Blog
Sep 24, 2021 3:56 PMSep 29, 2021 5:05 PM
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(Credit: Maksim Shmeljov/Shutterstock)

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The most prolific modern serial killer, according to Wikipedia, is probably Harold Shipman, a British doctor who probably killed as many as 250 people.

Shipman’s crimes went unnoticed because his victims were mostly elderly and whose deaths were unlikely to raise suspicions. However, researchers have since pointed out that Shipman’s murderous tendencies stick out like a sore thumb if they are viewed through the lens of statistics. Too many of his patients died unexpectedly and this statistical signature could have raised the alarm earlier.

Clearly, statistics can play a valuable role in characterizing the behavior of serial killers. Now Mikhail Simkin and Vwani Roychowdhury at the University of California, Los Angeles, say their analysis of data on serial killers reveals how many go uncaught and how many victims these killers must have bagged.

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