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How Iceland is Forecasting Eruptions Near Grindavík

Using observations collected over the past few years on the Reykjanes Peninsula, the Icelandic Meteorological Office has been able to offer forecasts on the likelihood of new eruptions near Grindavík.

Rocky Planet iconRocky Planet
By Erik Klemetti
Feb 29, 2024 6:20 PMFeb 29, 2024 6:22 PM
Icelandic Eruption
A view of a recent eruption near Grindavík in Iceland on February 8, 2024. Credit: IMO.

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Volcanologists can't predict eruptions. There is no reliable and tested method that can say that a certain volcano will erupt on a certain day or at a certain time. You might see such things on YouTube and elsewhere on the internet, but they are mostly people making patterns where there are none.

However, volcanologists have been getting much better at forecasting eruption likelihood. Now, that might sound a lot like prediction, but it is not. Instead, it is like the weather: they can offer the chances that an eruption might occur over some time period, like a meteorologist might say that we have a 75% chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. These volcanic forecasts might only be days or hours in advance on an eruption, but even that little warning means getting out of harm's way.

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