TS Florence is giving the forecasters a hell of a time. They can't see any real reason why it hasn't strengthened--but it hasn't. Chalk up another mystery to the weird Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. As forecaster Lixion Avila amusingly puts it in his latest discussion, which follows upon multiple prior predictions of intensification that have been belied by events:
LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE PREVAILED.
Meanwhile, Jeff Masters has what may be a partial explanation for why the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006 could shape up to be nothing at all like 2005. We could be moving into an El Nino year, which strongly suppresses hurricane activity in our basin while enhancing it in the Pacific (aka Ioke...)
