If an inspector wants to verify a nuclear treaty on Earth, they can enter a facility, open containers, and inspect equipment. In space, there is no door to knock on.
That problem has shadowed the Outer Space Treaty since 1967, when countries agreed not to place nuclear weapons in orbit. One hundred and eighteen nations have signed it, including the U.S., China, and Russia. But if a nuclear weapon were hidden inside a satellite, there would be no open, peer-reviewed scientific way to prove it.
The question has become more urgent since Russia launched Cosmos-2553 into a radiation-heavy orbital zone in 2022 that satellite operators typically avoid. Russia says the satellite is used for sensing and surveillance, while U.S. officials have said it may be testing components related to a nuclear device.
Now, in a paper published in Nature, MIT physicist Areg Danagoulian proposes a way to inspect a satellite without opening it. His detector would fly nearby and search for the particle signature of nuclear material hidden inside, identifying it with over 99 percent accuracy.
“If we eventually have some verification mechanisms for the Outer Space Treaty, that will put pressure on countries to respect the treaty or disclose what they are doing, because they know if they try to violate it, we will find out,” Danagoulian said in a press release.
Nuclear Weapons in Space Could Damage Satellites
The concern around Cosmos-2553 is what could happen if a nuclear weapon detonated near that orbit. According to Danagoulian, the location may be especially good at trapping electrons released by a thermonuclear blast, allowing them to linger in Earth’s magnetic field.
A detonation at that altitude would strip huge numbers of electrons from the weapon’s atoms and inject them into the Van Allen belt, a band of radiation surrounding Earth. From there, those electrons could sweep through satellites in their path, overwhelming the electronics of GPS systems, communications satellites, and low-orbit constellations like Starlink.
In 1962, the United States detonated a 1.4-megaton nuclear weapon at high altitude during a test, destroying many of the early satellites then circling Earth.
A Detector Could Search for Hidden Nuclear Material
Danagoulian's solution doesn't require breaking into the satellite or getting its cooperation. It relies on something the universe does naturally.
Space is constantly bombarded by high-energy particles called cosmic protons. When those protons strike ordinary materials, not much happens. But when they hit dense radioactive materials like uranium or plutonium, each proton can knock loose roughly 40 neutrons, producing a signal that no conventional satellite generates.
His detector captures those neutrons using a compact system of sensors and synthetic diamond crystal detectors that filter out background particles and home in on signals from a nearby source. Positioned within roughly 2.5 miles (4,000 meters) of a suspect satellite, it could confirm the presence of a nuclear weapon with over 99 percent confidence in roughly a week. At about half a mile (1,000 meters), the same certainty could be reached in an hour.
A Possible New Way to Enforce the Outer Space Treaty
Most nuclear detection research happens inside classified programs, far from public view. Danagoulian wanted to put a foundation on the open record.
“The purpose of the paper is to show the scientific community that it’s scientifically possible to do this. But there are many more practical considerations to be made to actually build these detectors,” Danagoulian said.
He is working with MIT's Center for Nuclear Security and Policy on what a real verification regime would require and hopes national laboratories develop their own approaches.
“You can fake intelligence,” he said, “but you can’t fake physics.”
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Article Sources
Our writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. Review the sources used below for this article:
- This article references information from a study published in Nature: Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with cosmic protons
