According to the latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, this storm, currently passing south of Madagascar and entering the Mozambique Channel, is a strong Category 3 (105 knot or roughly 120 mph winds) possibly on its way to Category 4. What's troubling about that is the projected track for Favio, shown below in an image from Tropical Storm Risk.
If the part of the South Indian ocean conducive to cyclones were a football field, then Madagascar would be the twenty yard line and Mozambique (where Favio seems headed) would be the end zone. In Storm World, I discuss the devastating Cyclone Gafilo, which smacked Madgascar as a Category 5 in March of 2004. Mozambique has also had some cyclone disasters in recent memory, especially in 2000 from Cyclone Eline and Cyclone Hudah. Published research suggests that warm sea surface temperatures and La Nina contributed to that very destructive season. I'm not sure what kind of conditions are prevailing at the present moment in this area, but I am sure (from watching the models and forecasts) that the fairly rapid intensification of Cyclone Favio over the past few days was not expected. Let's hope this storm doesn't prove anywhere near as bad for Mozambique as Eline and Hudah did in 2000...
