One thing that people occasionally mention in the comments on this weblog is that it seems futile to be "conservative" because the arrow of history goes in one direction. Even many conservatives, including myself, have fallen into this assumption. But upon a closer inspection of history I think we need to be careful about this, as the truth can sometimes confound our coarse models. For example, I strongly suspect that when it comes to love and marriage the realized element of individual liberty has not had a monotonic trajectory over human history. More plainly, free choice declined over the past 10,000 years, and has reemerged in the past few centuries. Whether this is liberal or conservative is less relevant than that it shows that attitudes, beliefs, and practices, do not always change in magnitude in one direction, only at different rates. More recently, sexual mores in the West shifted to a more puritanical direction between 1750 and 1900, only to switch back to a more relaxed attitude over the 20th century (with a punctuated shift in the 1960s). And these sorts of trends are evident even over a shorter time scale. So it may be with attitudes toward divorce. One could argue (I probably would) that "liberal" attitudes toward divorce in the 1970s was a correction from an unsustainable equilibrium leading up to the 1960s. But over the past few decades it does look as if college educated whites have had second thoughts about the "arrow of history." At the very least they are now more likely to stand athwart history and yell "stop." Below are results limited to non-Hispanic whites with college educations. Note especially the change in those with "No religions." They seem clearly to have had enough. Attitudes toward divorce laws:
1970s1980s1990s2000s
Born before 1946Easier35191815
More Difficult40525450
Stay Same25282835
Born 1946-1964Easier43222018
More Difficult31485047
Stay Same26313035
Born after 1965Easier**1617
More Difficult**5352
Stay Same**3231
LiberalsEasier49272626
More Difficult26403532
Stay Same26333942
ModeratesEasier36231917
More Difficult33515147
Stay Same30273036
ConservativesEasier2616149
More Difficult52576565
Stay Same21272126
ProtestantEasier32181411
More Difficult42566058
Stay Same26262631
CatholicEasier29191815
More Difficult45545553
Stay Same26272732
No ReligionEasier63353228
More Difficult14182628
Stay Same22474244
1986 index income <$20,000Easier36182016
More Difficult40565146
Stay Same24262938
1986 index income $20,000-$50,000Easier37211916
More Difficult37495455
Stay Same26302829
1986 index income $50,000>Easier39222018
More Difficult36474946
Stay Same25313236
All results computed from the GSS
